BlackRock’s Private Credit: Staying Power (2025) highlights how banks and asset managers are converging in a USD 2.5 trillion market projected to reach USD 4.5 trillion by 2030, with direct-lending yields near 11.5% and enduring investor demand.
Source / Author: BlackRock — Macro Credit Research, Portfolio Management Group (Amanda Lynam, Dominique Bly)
Publication Date: March 2025
Document with my annotations:
Focus:
BlackRock’s latest analysis argues that private credit has matured into a systemic component of the global funding ecosystem. The report examines how the asset class is integrating with bank and syndicated markets, supported by bank partnerships, regulatory shifts, and steady investor demand.
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Key Insights
• Global private credit AUM reached USD 2.5 trillion in 2024 and is projected to climb to USD 4.5 trillion by 2030, confirming its durability as a financing channel.
• Banks are now participating in private credit via direct lending, origination partnerships, and synthetic risk transfers, signaling structural convergence between banks and nonbanks.
• Private credit provides a complementary funding source to commercial and industrial loans and syndicated debt, enhancing access for both mid-market and large borrowers.
• Direct lending spreads averaged 178 bps above syndicated loans in 2024, with yields near 11.5%, underscoring strong investor compensation for illiquidity and complexity.
• Fundamentals remain resilient: realized loss rates are low, and dispersion—not distress—defines current market dynamics.
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Notable Figures
• Market size: USD 2.5 trillion (2024)
• Forecast AUM: USD 4.5 trillion by 2030
• North America share: ≈71% of global AUM
• Direct-lending yield: 11.5% vs. 9.5% for leveraged loans
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Analyst Take
BlackRock’s study reinforces the institutionalization of private credit as a third pillar of global finance—alongside banks and public markets. For investors and policymakers, it highlights how regulation and capital efficiency are driving collaboration rather than competition. The trend aligns closely with LucUnchained.com’s themes: the tokenization of private markets, bank–asset-manager convergence, and the evolution of nonbank credit into an investable, technology-enabled asset class.
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Citation:
Source: BlackRock, “Private Credit: Further Confirmation of Its Staying Power,” March 2025. https://www.blackrock.com/institutions